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Robert D Kaplan, in his latest book – Waste Land: A World in Permanent Crisis, advocates a stance on current geopolitical order, and envisions its chaotic near-future. He examines the positions of major global powers like the United States, Russia, and China, and analyses that they all are in decline.
Illustration by The Geostrata
Hence, the world would be witnessing a global state of disorder, a breakdown similar to the post-World War I. One crisis leading to another, as per the domino-effect can puncture the working of global affairs, as all the countries are interconnected. This article will analyse the reasons for decline of the three big powers of the current multipolar world – the U.S., Russia, and China.
RECEDING PROMINENCE OF THE U.S.
Owing to a debt of $36 trillion, Robert Kaplan affirms the U.S.’ forecast on the economy to be in peril. This economic burden is projected to strain the nation’s resources and restrict its capabilities to further its economic prowess which it has been witnessing since past centuries.
Additionally, the U.S. has maintained its prominence in the unipolar world order post-1990s, however, the world is now witnessing the rise of other powers such as China, India, Brazil, etc. Moreover, the U.S. is experiencing political polarisation, making it relatively difficult to implement reforms and efficiently address the global challenges.
These divisions can be detrimental to the economic sphere as well if not addressed effectively. The U.S. has witnessed its dependency on imports from countries like China, Mexico, etc, and is currently underway to rectify the error by making itself less reliable on such countries by imposing heavy tariffs.
Furthermore, due to the U.S.' military overreach around the world has led to strain in resources and finances. President Trump’s objective under his new tenure is to stop financial aid to Ukraine, which would save huge costs of the U.S. treasury. He has also urged the NATO nations to augment their expenditures as the U.S. is the main contributor, providing maximum aid and assistance.
Additionally, the societal challenges in the U.S. such as in the sectors of education and healthcare can weaken economic productivity and social cohesion. Finally, the U.S., which is the leader in innovation, should continue competing in the technology domain to excel its economy as technology is the key to future stability.
RUSSIA’S DECLINING POWER IN THE GLOBAL ARENA
Out of the three powers mentioned, Russia is the most troubled and evidently because of its involvement in Ukraine. The Russia-Ukraine war is a few days short to enter its third year, and yet, there is no signalling of its cessation. The decline of Russia as a global power is certain due to several aspects ranging from security to economic, political to social, etc.
Firstly, the war has severe repercussions on both Russia and Ukraine. Witnessing three years in war, has weakened the Russian economy as it faces the brunt of economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies. Most dependent on energy exports, the global markets, especially Europe, has closed its shutter for Russia.
Secondly, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has strained and diminished its resources. The conflict has led to considerable military and civilian casualties, receding supply of logistics, and overall contributed to economic burden. Additionally, Russia has involved its mercenary groups to various missions in Africa, West Asia, and other regions, which has contributed to its economic burden.
Thirdly, over two decades, Russia is experiencing the autocratic regime of Vladimir Putin, who, as of now, has no clear successor, which could weaken the political landscape in Russia after President Putin. Fourthly, Russia faces significant demographic challenges due to low birth rates, high death rates and emigration.
Due to its engagement in war, the society is facing social issues related to healthcare, employment, education, etc. As Russia faces a myriad of problems related to its security, economy, politics, society, etc, its global stance as a major power is likely to suffer, making its decline inevitable.
ERODING INFLUENCE OF CHINA
China’s rise began in the 1980s, becoming a befitting rival to the U.S. in many aspects from military to economics. China is a major player in global trade, and therefore mainly is an export-driven economy. It has made significant developments in technology and infrastructure.
Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the testimony to China’s grandeur infrastructural ambition around the world. However, the graph for China is starting to dwindle as it faces severe economic issues, from high-debt to decline in its real estate, and low FDI. In 2021, China’s most valuable real estate company Evergrande, defaulted on $300 billion with insufficient assets to recover.
China’s real estate sector is a prominent component in its economic growth and stability, and currently it is grappling with economic turmoil. Like Russia, China too, faces demographic challenges due to low birth rates and aging population. As per the report from National Bureau of Statistics, China’s population declined by 1.39 million over the past year to 1.408 billion as deaths surpassed births.
After the Covid-19 pandemic, the healthcare and societal situation further worsened, impacting the economy at large. Considering China’s political landscape, the constant state intervention in the economy has stagnated the scope for growth and innovation.
The centralising tendency of China is likely to hinder its objectives for sustainable growth and development, limiting its capabilities to thrive in the changing geopolitical environment. China, which is fairly an export-driven economy would face massive burden due to tariffs which are plausibly to be imposed by the United States.
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The global world order is in flux, and with grappling challenges, the declining prowess of the current three powers – the U.S., Russia, and China, will further become volatile contributing to chaos and conflict. Therefore, the world must be adaptive towards changing circumstances, and become antifragile towards such challenges.
To thrive and sustain in the current world, the nations must navigate the complexities, and avoid permanent crises. Achieving this will pave the way for a more stable and prosperous future.
BY ARYA GHADIGAONKAR
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