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The Pacific has emerged as a crucial geopolitical arena, underscored by the escalating rivalry among global powers. Within this complex landscape, China’s expanding influence faces unique challenges as a result of its limited coastline, significantly affecting its economic and military objectives.
Illustration by The Geostrata
This article delves into China’s geographical constraints and their impact on its regional and global ambitions. It compares China’s circumstances with those of other regional actors, thereby emphasising their geographical advantages and role in shaping the geopolitical dynamics that we witness today.
Furthermore, this article analyses the strategic significance of the Pacific, the economic and military implications of China’s access to the region, and China’s multifaceted response to its geographical disadvantages. This comprehensive overview of China’s challenges in the Pacific provides insights into potential consequences for regional security, stability, and, finally, the balance of power.
THE PACIFIC THEATRE
The Pacific serves as a global trade nexus, thereby encompassing critical shipping lanes and choke points such as the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. Its abundant natural resources, particularly its substantial oil and gas reserves, further emphasise its strategic importance.
Control over the Pacific confers considerable economic and strategic advantages, making it a focal point for creating power competition.
As China, the United States, and other regional actors jockey for influence, the Pacific has become a global geopolitical hotspot with far-reaching implications for international security and cooperation.
CHINA'S GEOGRAPHICAL DISADVANTAGE: A STRATEGIC CONUNDRUM IN THE PACIFIC
Despite its significant demographic and economic influence, China’s access to the Pacific is severely constrained by its limited coastline. This poses a strategic dilemma as China seeks to project power and safeguard its interests in the region, particularly amidst growing tensions and competition from other major powers, most notably the United States.
An example would be the United States naval blockade of Japan during the Second World War, demonstrating how control over important maritime routes can cripple an adversary. As such, China’s geographical limitations significantly impact its regional aspirations, thus requiring the nation to develop innovative strategies to overcome these constraints.
China’s restricted access to the Pacific carries significant economic implications, given its implicit reliance on maritime trade routes. With more than 60% of its trade traversing the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea, disruptions in these regions could critically undermine China’s economy.
Militarily, the nation’s geography limits its capacity to project naval power and defend its interests in the Pacific, thus exposing it to potential threats from opponents and actors.
However, China’s various ambitious infrastructures, expansion plans, and military modernization efforts reflect its determination to capitalise on the opportunities presented by the region, while addressing its weaknesses.
In comparison to China, other regional nations enjoy considerable geographical advantages in the Pacific. The United States, for example, maintains a very robust military presence through its extensive network of bases and alliances with key regional partners like Japan and South Korea.
This is also due to the nation’s geopolitical rivalry with China, especially concerning naval operations, which has led the US to expand its military presence more than it ever has been. India’s strategic location enables it to exert its influence over both the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, especially with its necklace of diamonds strategy, thus challenging China’s regional ambitions.
CHINA'S RESPONSE: ISLAND BUILDING, BRI, AND MILITARY MODERNISATION
To counterbalance its geographical constraints, China has pursued many strategies. Artificial island construction being one of them in the South China Sea, has allowed China to extend its territorial claims and bolster its military presence.
The very ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a vast infrastructure project spanning Asia, Africa, and Europe, aims to secure strategic footholds along key maritime trade routes.
The very ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a vast infrastructure project spanning Asia, Africa, and Europe, aims to secure strategic footholds along key maritime trade routes. Moreover, China’s military modernisation, which includes developing aircraft carriers, submarines, and cutting-edge weaponry, seeks to enhance its power projection capacities in the Pacific.
USA PACIFIC-FOCUSED POLICIES
The United States has increasingly directed its focus towards the Pacific region, which can also be observed in its foreign policy and security strategies. Their renewed focus on the Pacific reflects a strategic shift in response to evolving geopolitical dynamics, notably China’s rise.
China’s increasing assertiveness has brought Australia and the US closer, forging a partnership that could very well shape the entire future of the region. China’s expanding influence in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly since the promulgation of the “New Silk Roads,” has also led to Australia’s attempts to limit this Chinese temptation to present itself as a regional leader.
As such, the United States, through various alliances, manages to reaffirm its determination to counter China’s military aspirations and reality. For this reason, initiatives like talks of potentially helping Australia acquire their first conventionally armed and nuclear-powered fleet through the AUKUS Treaty (Australia, United Kingdom, United States) and maybe introducing naval nuclear propulsion facilities under the AUKUS deal, the ANZUS Treaty, as well as rotational deployment of the US Marine Corps in northern territory-based Darwin, demonstrate the growth of regional alliances to counter China’s rise, the success of which could efficiently counterbalance China’s expanding influence.
Both Japan and the US share concerns over China’s territorial claims and military buildup in the East and South China Seas. The US-Japan alliance aims to counterbalance regional hegemony, preserve a rule-based international order and prevent potential aggression, emphasising exactly how important Japan is in the US-Pacific strategy.
Partnerships like the US-Japan security treaties, trilateral cooperation with South Korea like Ulchi Freedom Guardian with their real-time data sharing and joint military exercises, as well as Japan replenishing the US’ missile inventory to maintain military readiness, so they can counter their one common goal: China.
This alliance represents a very multifaceted alliance amidst tensions that are shaped by current circumstances, historical ties as well as shared strategic interests. Anchored by the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty, cooperation has evolved through various enhanced defence cooperation agreements, which give US troops access to Philippine military bases, and annual Balikatan military exercises help showcase a strong collective defence collaboration, thereby strengthening the US presence in retaliation to China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea.
The US strategy in the Indo-Pacific Region relies heavily on Guam’s military base, which serves as a heavily critical forward presence and strategic hub for military operations. Guam plays a central role in supporting the US military because of the island’s reliable access and strategic location in the Pacific Ocean, which has resulted in centuries of geopolitical importance.
Recent initiatives like the US formally establishing Base Guam emphasise how important the island really is in bolstering national security, As China’s influence continues to grow, the US is also increasing its focus on Guam’s military infrastructure.
The Pentagon’s plans to bolster defences around Guam in 2024, with an almost five billion budget, highlight the significance of Guam in tackling regional threats. Guam’s proximity to the South China Sea further solidifies its role as a strategic endeavour in the United States’ Pacific game plan.
UNDERLYING MOTIVES: THE ENCIRCLEMENT OF CHINA AND ITS IMPLICATIONS
The US Pacific strategy can be observed as a sincere effort to tackle China’s growing influence in the region. This strategic posture, embedded in historical containment strategies in the Cold War era, is seen as a response to China’s increasing territorial claims in the East and South China Seas. The US’ various alliances with other nations can be viewed as deliberate attempts to counterbalance these claims.
The perceived “encirclement” has its own set of ramifications, like potentially exacerbating tensions between the US and China. As the US seeks to maintain its primacy and counter China’s influence, the implications of its approach will shape the geopolitical landscape for years to come.
The United States' military presence in the Asia-Pacific region has long been a cornerstone of its strategy to maintain hegemony and protect its interests. This presence, characterised by a network of bases and alliances, significantly influences China's calculus. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines host substantial US military forces, providing Washington with critical forward operating bases.
The white house says they serve as deterrents against potential aggression, but many analyses over the years have revealed the overall aggressive postures of these bases.
From China’s perspective, the US military presence is viewed as a direct challenge to its sovereignty and regional aspirations. Beijing perceives this as a containment strategy designed to limit China’s access to the Pacific.
This perception has fueled a significant military buildup and modernisation effort by China, aimed at countering the US The resulting arms race has increased regional tensions, leading to a precarious balance of power that hinges on both deterrence and the risk of inadvertent escalation.
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA: A BATTLEGROUND FOR SOVEREIGNTY
The South China Sea represents one of the most contentious arenas in US-China relations. This strategic waterway, through which a significant portion of global trade passes, is subject to competing territorial claims from China and several Southeast Asian Nations. In 2000, late Chinese President Jian Zeming said that constructing a great maritime power has been an important historic task, and will be in the near future as well.
The goal has always been to advance China’s claims in the maritime region and avoid military escalation, especially if one looks at the Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf Act of 1998 laid out by the nation, highlighting its absolute historic rights.
The United States, while not a claimant, has a vested interest in ensuring freedom of navigation and upholding international maritime law, as codified in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which in itself is sanctimonious as Washington has not yet ratified the same law.
China's extensive claims, marked by the so-called Nine-Dash Line, and its construction of artificial islands with military installations have drawn international criticism and legal challenges. This legal and strategic contest underscores the broader power struggle between the two nations, with each seeking to assert its interpretation of maritime rights and sovereignty.
DETERRENCE VS INADVENT ESCALATION
The strategic environment in the Asia-Pacific is characterised by a delicate balance between deterrence and the risk of inadvertent escalation. The US maintains a robust military presence to deter potential Chinese aggression against its allies and interests. Conversely, China's military modernisation and assertive actions in the South China Sea are aimed at deterring US intervention and securing its periphery.
This balance is fraught with danger. Military manoeuvres, close encounters at sea, and the potential for miscalculation heighten the risk of unintended conflict. Both nations must navigate this precarious situation with caution.
THE YIN AND YANG
Yin and Yang, an ancient Chinese concept, highlights the interdependence of opposing forces, suggesting that a balance is required. The US and China embody this duality, with their actions and policy in the region. Military power and strategic competition are necessary aspects of this relationship, driving advancements and asserting national interests. However, a balance is required in the region.
INDIA’S PERSPECTIVE
India’s stance seeking self-reliance, on protecting its sovereignty while balancing its role as a regional security provider is a delicate and strategic approach which primarily prioritises the nation’s long-term security and economic development goals. To become an economic powerhouse, India’s best strategy would be to protect its own sovereignty at all costs, which is a priority immeasurable compared to the country’s relationship with the concerned nations, which has also led to India establishing new models of looking at potential hierarchies of strategic partnerships.
As such, India recognises its position amidst this conflict and realises that not maintaining distance from it could impede the country’s progress and thus is astutely navigating the complexities that follow this path and the region.
India understands that to make certain regions capable of economic and strategic growth with respect to maritime as well as international arenas, it needs to grow and prosper to promote other nations and regions to do so, which makes this matter purely of national interest for the country.
One important example of India's commitment to protecting its sovereignty can be seen in its approach to the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China, which includes security interests circling the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, passing through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, a region of major contention by both parties.
This exemplifies the country’s unwavering stance on prioritising its territorial integrity over potential benefits that might transpire from its participation in the initiative.
By steering clear of and gaining distance from the broader power games of the West, such as tensions between the United States and China, India is aiming to create a stable environment conducive to its economic growth, which also aligns with the nation’s aim of becoming a 5 trillion economy by 2025, which is ‘challenging’ but ‘realisable’ according to the country’s finance minister Smt Nirmala Sitharaman.
As also reminded by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, “This is a game best played on the front foot, appreciating that progress on any one front strengthens that on all others”, signifying that the ‘India way’ is to be multi-aligned instead of non-aligned, which has been India’s approach in the past.
He also mentions how having multiple engagements in the future is more realistic considering the current geopolitical climate. This approach ensures India’s autonomy in decision-making while safeguarding its security and sovereignty.
BY VAIBHAV SINGH & NAVYA SRIVASTAVA
THE GEOSTRATA
Such an engaging read!!
very interesting take!