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Afghanistan- a board for great powers to play chess on. A graveyard of empires. A cauldron of mixed ethnicities and rich culture.
In this important book, Stanly Johny and Ananth Krishnan have provided an analytical understanding of China's dealings with Taliban 2.0, its stake in Afghanistan, its geostrategic interests, the domestic dynamics of a Leninist one-party state, the role of its all-weather ally Pakistan, and the resultant implications for Asian geopolitics.
Illustration by The Geostrata
Contextualising the current developments, the diligent authors have also provided a historical background of Afghanistan before providing a peek into the policies and agenda of Afghanistan's crucial neighbours - Pakistan, India and China. What's common between Great Britain, the Soviet Union and the US presence in Afghanistan?
All of them tried to remake Afghanistan and failed. The great geopolitical games are intriguing if not complex. The Soviet Union underestimated American resolve after its dramatic exit from Vietnam, feeling confident enough about invading Afghanistan to its South.
For its part, the US contributed to the Vietnamisation of Afghanistan for the Soviets. And then, it was America’s turn to escape just like it did in Saigon, from its Frankenstein in Kabul. The implications of direct and indirect decades-long interference of the USA, the double game played by Pakistan, the arrival of Mujahideen, the internal contradictions between the ethnic groups, the Chinese involvement, the creation of Taliban and the US-led global war on terror on destabilising Afghanistan which still doesn't have a stable economic and industrial base to grow.
How the Washington-Islamabad- Jeddah arms and money pipeline significantly altered the landscape of Afghanistan in the last few decades has been explored in detail as has been the major role played by Pakistani Generals in aggravating the crises.
While tracing the biographies of Osama Bin Laden, and Omar Mullah and explaining the Taliban’s origins and rise to power, the ideological underpinning of the latter has been traced to the Islamic revivalism and anti-British Deobandi movement which originated in United Provinces in India in the 19th century.
We are told how this ideology ended up travelling from India to Hindu Kush, and how the Taliban established its theocracy based on Wahhabi social views and a Deobandi past.
Xinjiang’s history, Xuan Zhang’s travels, ancient Central Asian Buddhist centres, party policies towards Muslims, politics and economics behind the Belt and Road initiative - that’s how the writers bring us to the genesis of the Uighurs issue as well as the relevance of Afghanistan for China.
China's response to Taliban 2.0 was interesting. There was cheering and celebrations of what could be described as Western decline, the fall of America. In a country where destruction was caused to the majestic Bamiyan Buddhas, the radical extremism of the Taliban had caused deep pain and suspicions, there was an attempt to give an image makeover to the Taliban, to make them palatable for propaganda by showing how they were grassroots liberators who threw off foreign yoke (US interference).
There were also some scholars in China calling for restraint in pouring billions into Afghanistan given its current situation. However, on a spectrum of extreme caution and extreme jubilance, one can find China’s response somewhere in the middle.
Propaganda doesn't always mean government policy i.e. for all the vociferous calls for investment & cooperation China would be hesitant to repeat Western mistakes and would try to influence the Taliban’s behaviour to meet its objectives even if it has to follow ruthless pragmatism.
It's crucial to understand the premise that China's overriding concern and priority has always been securing its frontiers, not conquest. Fighting against terror e.g. the extremist group East Turkestan Islamic Movement which could use the ripe ground in Kabul for causing instability in China's Western frontier, is a case in point.
Recognising Pakistan’s role in securing cooperation with the Taliban to address such threats, China has been willing to play the game of “good terrorists-bad terrorists”. One only needs to remember the numerous instances of China’s vetoes against attempts by India to list Pakistan-based terrorists on the UN sanctions list.
The authors also offer an interesting interpretation of BRI, explaining how, for all its claims of connectivity and integration, China wouldn't want its Xinjiang region, in particular, to get connected with Central Asia, bringing in chaos and extremism. China's crackdown on Islam at home contrasts with its claims of being a better power than the West, where many practices of the religion are considered extremist.
Image Credits: Rightful Owner
Thanks to the stepped-up diplomacy of China in the Middle East and elsewhere, no Muslim country has been forthcoming in criticising Beijing for its actions against Uyghurs, with its all-weather ally Pakistan even accepting the Chinese version of ‘vocational training’. A dedicated chapter on Xinjiang covers the historical context as well as CCP policies right up to the internment camps today.
New Delhi has been, understandably, realistically pragmatic in dealing with the rulers of Afghanistan. It had a strenuous relationship with Kabul only once, and that too when Taliban 2.0 was in power. Looking at the communists, Soviets, Mujahideen, and Mullahs from New Delhi's perspective, India's bilateral trajectory and policy have also been traced, as has the role of Pakistan’s ‘asymmetrical warfare’ (a fancy term for terrorism).
It can be summarily stated that as far as China is concerned, the road to Kabul passes through Islamabad. Given the precarious situation in Xinjiang province and the spillover of instability in Afghanistan, China circles back to the role of Pakistan.
The authors have, most importantly, highlighted the economic and humanitarian disaster occurring there, and poor socio-economic development and have emphasized the suffering of people. The landmines of extremism, violence and destruction strewn across the chessboard which is Afghanistan has harmed the people of the country the most, wiping out a once rich, developed culture. This is a sobering fact, making it vital to acknowledge and remember the people’s suffering while looking at any agreements and solutions concerning Afghanistan and its political future.
Looking at Afghanistan, one wonders if it’s inevitable that mistakes of the past, of a bloody history will always be repeated.
BY ADITI CHOUDHARY
TEAM GEOSTRATA
Important analysis.