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The border region along the frontier between Myanmar and Bangladesh has been the focus of conflict from 2021 till date. The ethnic clashes between the Myanmar army and the rebel armed resistance groups have resulted in widespread migration from Myanmar consisting of ordinary resistance and armed groups to Bangladesh.
Illustration by The Geostrata
The latest developments have increased the potential of the conflict with long-term consequences. Therefore, the article intends to examine the implications on the border areas of Bangladesh over the ongoing refugee crisis amid rising tensions between armed groups and Myanmar’s military (Tatmadaw).
BLURRED DISTINCTION BETWEEN INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL MIGRATION
The regional conflict over the border has resulted in increased migration along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. The problems at the border have pushed individuals out of their homes, triggering a conflict spillover scene.
The internal displacement has led to around 2.7 million people from Myanmar fleeing to Bangladesh.
Around 80,000 people have faced issues of internal displacement since October 2023. Such conditions have made the Bangladeshi government refuse to accept a large number of refugees since the inception of the conflict. The arrival of refugees from Myanmar has exacerbated the difficulties of Bangladesh, which is ill-equipped to handle the flow of around 1 million Rohingya Muslims.
The unregulated refugee problem has led to the eventualities of a military crackdown since 2017 in Myanmar. The conflict in Myanmar has resulted in internal displacements and led to the outflow of refugees from the country. Therefore, such conditions have blurred the distinction between the internal and external flow of refugees, with Naypyidaw adopting ‘genocidal intent’.
IMPLICATIONS OF HOSTING ARMED GROUPS AS REFUGEES
The ongoing conflicts have also resulted in the displacement of not only the civilian population but also the combatants involved. The conflicts and displacements have involved the border police, soldiers, customs and government officials from the current regime in Myanmar after sustained attacks by the local armed groups like the United League of Arakan (ULA) and groups like the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) that demanded autonomy from the central government for years.
According to Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB), around sixty-three armed individuals belonging to the regime crossed the border and arrived in Bangladesh in February 2024. The migration patterns have taken place in locations closer to the refugee camps located in Bangladesh’s Cox Bazar, where the majority of the ethnic Rohingya Muslim refugees are living.
The disturbed migration patterns have also been seen in the case of the Ghumdhum region, which is located along the borders of the two countries. The tensions and migration in areas near the refugee camps signify instances of internal security inside Bangladesh, with armed groups like the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) operating from inside the Bangladeshi territory.
The locations have seen movements of armed groupings belonging to different ethnic communities trying to enter Bangladesh. The conditions have led to the rise of criminal activities involving smugglers seizing octane fuel, diesel and soybean oil in Bangladesh.
A special meeting in January 2024 at the administrative offices at Cox Bazar claimed increasing smuggling of fuel, cooking oil and food between the two countries through the border and coastal areas.
LACK OF REPATRIATION STRATEGY AND BANGLADESH'S INTERNAL DISTURBANCES
The border between Bangladesh and Myanmar is known for its volatility and porosity. Border volatility has led to conflict spillover and tensions around the border. Since the inception of the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) into the governance of the country by dismissing the popularly elected government, civil war broke out in February 2021.
The ongoing conflict has resulted in Tatmadaw losing control of vast areas of the countryside. As per February 2024 reports, many areas of Myanmar, including the bordering areas near Bangladesh, like the Rakhine state, are now controlled by the Arakan Army.
Similar clashes between the Tatmadaw and the armed groups were observed in 2012 when ethnic violence in the volatile Rakhine region along religious lines resulted in a border crisis. Therefore, conditions of armed conflict in the areas of Myanmar bordering Bangladesh and triggering widespread migration are not a recent phenomenon.
The concerns over the rising migration rates exaggerate the existing crisis over the refugees. Such conditions also reflect the Bangladesh government’s inability to develop a solid mechanism for negotiating their repatriation.
In September 2019, Bangladesh walked away from the United Nations-guided mediation efforts on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, forming a tripartite joint working mechanism involving neighbouring countries in the repatriation of refugees. The existing issues involve reduced international aid and interest in the ongoing refugee crisis as their populations grow.
Image Credits: Rightful Owner
Logistical problems related to producing and verifying documents have also contributed to the problem. The refugees escaping Myanmar are leaving their homes and many do not have issued papers. Such registration processes thus did not cover the entire population. Therefore, the conditions will increase the number of stateless individuals of Myanmar origin in Bangladesh as their details do not match their names and addresses.
The prevailing circumstances may result in the spread of terrorism and disturbances in Bangladesh as the incentives to return will reduce due to the lack of a sufficient repatriation strategy. In addition, the domestic disturbances in Myanmar will lead to a lack of interest in returning as entire villages have been razed to the ground over the years.
The provision by Myanmar penalizing the fundamentalists will escalate future conflicts and will lay grounds for a new campaign of persecution. The violent clashes and fighting in Rakhine province have resulted in panic among the residents of Bangladesh living close to the bordering areas of Myanmar.
Increased conflict in Myanmar can increase the probability of internal displacement in the regions along the border. The incidents of internal displacement due to the ongoing conflict have been seen in the case of the population living in the Tumbru village fleeing their homes due to the conflict in October 2023, with the suspension of public services in the region and growing security concerns.
CONCLUSION
In conclusion, the rising conflict within Myanmar is likely to increase the number of refugees in Bangladesh amid ever-escalating tensions. The conditions of nameless individuals in Bangladesh will not only increase the number of stateless individuals there but will also lead to increased tensions amid the rising migration of armed combatants.
The prevailing circumstances will likely act as a conflict aggregator within Bangladesh, leading to increased chances of internal displacement and cross-border tensions. Therefore, Bangladesh must adopt repatriation mechanisms to attract international attention and interest in resolving the conflict with a regional solution, perhaps by involving its neighbours.
These actions are likely to intensify the actions of global humanitarian organisations in responding to the potential displacement and thus hopefully develop mechanisms for protecting the affected.
BY ANIRBAN DUTTA
TEAM GEOSTRATA
Very well-analysed !