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The official transition period of the United States of America’s (USA) President starts from the day the General Services Administration (GSA) in the Federal Government declares an apparent winner, and it continues till Inauguration Day - normatively January 20th in modern times.
Illustration by The Geostrata
This transition period is marked by an outgoing President and an incoming President-elect who gains greater influence with each passing day. A US President is instrumental in determining foreign policy relatively independent of Congress. He sets the tone for the administration’s priorities by strategically selecting destinations for state visits and recipients of phone calls from the President apart from decisions to enter into bilateral and multilateral agreements.
The President-elect is said to possess “quasi-executive” powers, and is even termed as a separate “White House” or a separate “branch of government”. However, most of the power that the President-elect possesses is informal as opposed to the formal powers of the outgoing President.
An example of this informal power can be found here - Joseph Biden, after his election win but before the inauguration, decided to first return Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s congratulatory call, followed by European allies, and then friends in the Asia-Pacific.
On the other hand, Donald Trump in 2016 had quickly called up leaders of Turkey, India, and Egypt while historic partners like the UK were left waiting. This was emblematic of Trump’s rhetoric in his first term of America First where NATO was left hanging in the balance.
These calls symbolised the foreign policy efforts of the above-mentioned presidents and are a good tool to understand what is to come. The Presidents-elect during the transition period set into motion the foreshadowing of policy promises from their campaign that will likely take place during their tenure.
Historian Timothy Naftali said in 2020, “The presidential transition is among the least studied moments of potential mayhem in the US political system.” This article henceforth analyses the historical domains, and contemporary relevance of foreign policy efforts of US Presidents-elect in the post-Cold War era.
THE LOGAN ACT AND ONE PRESIDENT AT A TIME: LAYING DOWN LEGAL-HISTORICAL DOMAINS OF ACTIONS OF US PRESIDENTS-ELECT AS OPPOSED TO THE SOLE ORGAN DOCTRINE
The Logan Act of 1799 was signed into law by President John Adams as a consequence of an unauthorized private citizen’s efforts to negotiate a dispute between the US and France. The US President-elect, in effect, is also a private citizen without governmental fiat to carry out diplomatic affairs.
The twentieth amendment to the US Constitution establishes that there can only be ‘one president at a time’. The ‘One President at a Time’ doctrine has been largely successful in spirit. It has also been related with the ‘Sole Organ’ doctrine which says that the President is the only representative with foreign nations.
However, most Presidents-elect have carried out some foreign policy agenda during the transition period, most relevantly, in the post Cold War era.
RELATED INSTANCES IN THE POST-COLD WAR ERA
Now, the post Cold War era has ushered in a new world order. There has also been an increase in partisanship in Washington DC. The current roles of the President have evolved prominently in this period.
All examples discussed below discuss a shift of control in Washington DC from one party to the other, namely. Democrats and Republicans and the associated foreign policy aspirations of the Presidents-elect.
An example of the growing powers of the President-elect as the transition period progresses can be found in the 1993 decision of George H.W. Bush’s government when it carried out a limited strike on Iraq just a week before leaving office. A Washington Post article from the hours after the attack reported that an unnamed top official in the Bush administration said that Clinton and his team were partners in deliberation.
Clinton had also stated that he would support Bush’s decisions to enforce UN resolutions. The involvement and support of the Cilnton administration became essential to the success of the strike due considerations regarding the stability and continuation of US hegemony. Contestations over the 2000 Presidential Election led to a delay in the declaration of the apparent win of George W. Bush over Clinton’s Vice Presideny Al Gore.
Around half of national security positions were vacant during the 9/11 attack due to delays associated with a late transition. Consequently, the bipartisan 9/11 Commission recommended that all major national security nominations should be submitted no later than January 20, the date of the inauguration, and considered within 30 days of the same.
During the campaign trail, Obama embarked on an international tour visiting Iraq, West Asia, and Europe in his official capacity as a senator from Illinois. Vice President-elect Biden in his dual capacity as Senator representing the state of Delaware and the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee went on a fact-finding trip to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
Still, eyebrows were raised at the time for this seeming breach of the ‘One (Vice) President at a Time’ doctrine. The trip was facilitated administratively by the Bush team. President Bush had invited President-elect Barack Obama to attend the G20 summit to be held in Washington DC for introductions to world leaders. However, Obama declined and sent bipartisan representatives instead.
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Donald Trump’s first transition was widely believed to be chaotic with purges, changes, and a relatively underprepared team. He met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in his capacity solely as a private citizen during an informal visit at the Trump Tower in New York.
This was remarkable for the presence of his daughter Ivanka Trump at the meeting signalling the larger role his family would play in the administration. Trump’s phone call with the Taiwanese Prime Minister on December 2, 2016, marked the first such contact between a US President or a President-elect since 1979. This ostensibly angered China due to its One-China policy.
The Trump administration offered limited cooperation to Joseph R. Biden’s transition team over denial to accept the result of the 2020 Presidential Election. Biden was denied national security briefings till November 23, 2020.
He had promised to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement and the Iran Nuclear Deal during the campaign. Apart from campaign promises to stop building the wall, he was also expected to suspend the Mexico City policy prohibiting funding for non-governmental organizations that provide abortions, and related services.
In his historic return to the White House, Donald Trump has made grandiose claims of ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 24 hours. Trump also remained in contact with Russian President Putin who he has spoken with seven times since he left office.
He hosted British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his private residence. Furthermore, he spoke on a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on December 16, 2024, regarding the need for an Israeli victory in the ongoing conflict. Trump also threatened that ‘all hell will break loose’ if a ceasefire deal is not reached before he takes office on January 20, 2025.
Trump’s Special Envoy to the Middle East Steven Witkoff and other staffers were at the negotiating table when the Israel-Palestine ceasefire deal was reached. Their presence was described as ‘critical’ by the Biden team since they would be responsible for its implementation. Both Trump and Biden claimed credit for the deal.
Trump said that the deal was only possible due to his victory in November, while Biden said that the deal largely mirrored his proposals in May. "This plan was developed and negotiated by my team and will be largely implemented by the incoming administration.
That's why I told my team to keep the incoming administration fully informed," Biden said in a farewell address from the Oval Office. Trump’s increased contact with world leaders in his four years out of office marks a break from the traditional roles of ex-Presidents and Presidents-elect.
A break from traditions, an aversion towards precedents, and constant media spotlight has defined Trump’s political career. It is yet unknown whether incoming Presidents will largely mirror earlier attempts at least masquerading their pre-Presidential Term foreign rendezvous with some official government positions like senatorial responsibilities; agree with the outgoing President’s team or stick to Trump’s novel way of conducting foreign affairs.
US Presidents-elect strongly influence foreign policy by making the outgoing administration co-operate with their interests hoping for a peaceful transition of power, and the world responds similarly by adjusting their rhetoric to suit the incoming administration.
Like many things about the future of the role and powers of the American President, US Presidents-elect’s roles especially in relation to foreign policy are marked by some general normativity yet differing rhetorics.
BY PRANAV
TEAM GEOSTRATA
In the 21st century, the American presidents have led the world to be more complicated than ever