.png)
On October 20th, the people of Moldova voted on proposed constitutional amendments that would categorise its EU membership as a ‘strategic objective’ based on the ‘European identity’ of the Moldovan people and affirming the ‘irreversibility’ of the country’s European course. The outcome was extremely close, with 50.46% voting ‘Yes’ and 49.54% voting ‘No’.
Illustration by The Geostrata
The narrow win favoured amending the Moldovan constitution so as to carry forward the pro-European Union trajectory.
Moldova, the poorest country in Europe, is in deep waters as the tiny victory margin has inevitably resulted in an ambiguous direction for the small country. What comes as a surprise to many observers is that the close victory occurred despite the steadfast advocacy for EU membership by their incumbent president Maia Sandu, over the years.
In the presidential elections held side by side of the referendum, Maia Sandu finished far ahead of her rivals, although short of a majority needed to form the government. She is thus preparing for a run-off on November 3rd.
WHY IS MOLDOVA SEEKING TO ALIGN WITH THE WEST?
For Moldova, the link with the rest of Europe is crucial for its sustenance as a democratic nation.
As aforementioned, it's a small country dependent largely on remittances sent by the citizens residing in EU nations. For decades the country was under Moscow’s influence, it was only in 2020 that the country began witnessing a shift from it. Moldova’s movement towards EU membership gained traction following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in March 2022.
The European Union is also more than willing to welcome Moldova to its fold, European commission president Ursula von der Leyen said in October that the EU would invest a record 1.8 Billion Euros over the next three years to assist the country’s plan to join the bloc.
Russia has actively opposed all efforts made by former Soviet Republics and allies to join the EU and has consistently proven Moscow’s determination to rebuild their influence in the region.
The country, formerly a part of the Soviet Union, has large chunks of its Eastern region, Transnistria which harbours pro-Moscow communities. For Sandu and her pro-European supporters, this anti-EU population is an overwhelming threat to their long-term aspirations. However, Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity is quite optimistic about countering the separatist forces in Transnistria.
It is important to highlight that the Kremlin has repeatedly asserted that Moldovan future interests should by default align organically with Russian markets as well as the ‘integration processes’ of former Soviet territories.
TRANSNISTRIA: A CRITICAL CHALLENGE FOR MOLDOVA
Transnistria is a separatist region that broke away from Moldova in 1990.
However, the international community still sees it as a part of Moldova. The region is politically, economically and militarily supported by Russia. The persistent activity of Russian troops in the region has stalled all peace talks, and the West is increasingly anxious about the soviet era arsenal in Cobasna, and the safety of munitions housed in the region.
MOLDOVA’S FIGHT AGAINST RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE
The Kremlin has been exploring tactics to disrupt the democratic environment in Moldova and is likely to expand its efforts in the coming decades. Meanwhile, the former Soviet republic is striving to free itself from Russian influence. For instance, Moldova has ended its dependence on Russia for gas and is indicating a growing reliance on the EU to fulfill its demands.
In addition, generous European investments in education, health, energy and infrastructure have kept Moldova afloat during crucial times.
These gestures have only added to the ‘European allegiance’ showcased by the Moldovan government. In the past years, pro-European Union demonstrations garnered massive numbers of people, with opinion polls suggesting extensive national consensus for aligning with the EU. Despite these positive markers ahead of the referendum, Maia Sandu’s ambition for a sweeping victory in the referendum was dashed.
Image Credits: Rightful Owner
As a requisite measure to join the EU, President Sandu has also pledged to ward off corrupt forces and strengthen the judicial system in the country to demonstrate the stability and democratic nature of their national institutions.
If this culminates in triumph the Moldovan accession to the EU will build momentum.
The EU and the USA are also assisting the Moldovan government to strengthen their cybersecurity systems to keep pro-Russian hackers and oligarchs at bay. What poses a greater fear to the European community, is the bleak possibility of Russian troops controlling more parts of Moldova through Ukrainian territory.
However, a military intervention appears improbable due to the Russian army’s entanglement in Ukraine and Moldova’s persistent efforts to eliminate all weaknesses that may lead to military action from Russia. However, Moscow has been strengthening its non-military strategies to intensify pressure on Moldova.
THE NATIONWIDE REFERENDUM AND WHAT IT SUGGESTS
The election and referendum were held simultaneously on October 20th. And the country voted in favour of joining the EU by 50.5%.
Moldova claims that Moscow channelled approximately $108 Million into the process to twist the outcome of the referendum to correspond with their aims.
However, Russia has consistently denied this occurrence, additionally seeking solid justifications to back up these statements. Likewise, there have been widespread reports afloat in media spaces suggesting the likely electoral corruption initiated by the fugitive pro-Russian oligarch and politician Ilan Shor.
According to Moldovan police reports, 130,000 voters allegedly received money to vote against the referendum.
Russia has also allegedly subjected Moldova to prolonged disinformation efforts targeted at the European Union, which sought to tarnish the reputation of the local authorities by circulating deep fakes, forged documents and rumors. But this doesn’t entirely reflect the idea that the 49.6% of the ‘No’ votes were wrongfully engineered by Russia.
Despite the massive possibility of making a landslide win, the pro-European political parties and civil societies experienced a ‘relative failure’ on October 20th. It is clear now that the communication methods deployed by the pro-European leadership were not without major flaws. They were largely too ‘technocratic’ for common comprehension.
Statistics and numbers representing the EU's achievements in Moldova did not embed itself into public consciousness enough to influence votes. This unmasks the shortcomings of Maia Sandu and her supporters' efforts to persuade the electorate about the merits of joining the European Union.
The road to achieving the aspirations of the pro-European movement in Moldova is undoubtedly set to be turbulent.
Meanwhile, in the presidential race, Maia Sandu championed the first round with 42% of the votes, but fell short of a majority, whereas her chief rival, Alexandr Stoianoglo, a Russia-friendly candidate of the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova garnered 26% votes.
The haze complicating a definitive national route for Moldova will see a clearance after the presidential runoff that will be held on November 3rd.
BY NAKSHATRA
TEAM GEOSTRATA
Highly informative
Quite informative!