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During the recent cycle of 18th general elections, National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), won. The central government is witnessing a coalition government in which the leading party has to rely on the allying parties for a majority.
Illustration by The Geostrata
Accordingly, Narendra Modi was nominated as the Prime Minister of India for the third consecutive term. Narendra Modi, in the election speech after his win, has promised big changes and a new chapter for the country and a significant portion of this new promise is the foreign policy of India. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has retained his post for the second consecutive year.
For years, a significant priority for the BJP government has been to make India into the third-largest economy in the world by 2027. Many economic reforms have been introduced in order to achieve this aim. Narendra Modi and S. Jaishankar together seek to cement India’s position as a global leader and Voice of the Global South.
Over the last decade, many important global events have either been hosted in India or have seen immense participation from India. A staple of the Indian foreign policy has been advocating for reforms in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
India has also focused on forming strong strategic alliances while ensuring independence of thought and strategy. Unfriendly neighbors have posed a security threat to the territorial integrity of the country and India has also sought to revitalize this relationship. India is likely to build upon previous achievements and successes.
In this article, India’s foreign policy and what Narendra Modi’s third consecutive term will mean for the same will be explored.
FOREIGN POLICY DURING MODI 1.0 AND MODI 2.0
An internal change that has been seen with respect to elections is the interest of the general populace in foreign policy. Foreign policy is seldom a part of India’s electoral discourse, but Modi has been an exception. Narendra Modi has multiple times used ‘vishwaguru’ or ‘World Leader’ as his campaign slogan to signal the shape of India’s future foreign policy.
India hosted the G20 in 2023 and debuted this stance predominantly. Modi’s energetic popularization of foreign policy in India’s public discourse is a stark departure from the past, when foreign policy events were largely unknown beyond the corridors and chancelleries of New Delhi.
The wider involvement of the public in the sphere of foreign policy is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it can lead to increased transparency, accountability and informed debate that will only further academic discourse. On the other hand, because of increased polarization and suppression of freedom of expression, public input on foreign policy can further damage the relationships between countries.
There are multiple sources which argue that India’s foreign policy has turned aggressive whereas some other sources are of the view that Narendra Modi has redrafted India’s image on the global platform as that of a Hindu nation instead of a secular nation.
Modi has managed to keep both his detractors as well as his supporters on tenterhooks by following a pragmatic foreign policy, keeping the 'India first' mantra at its core. The international order has witnessed multiple structural changes. In the contemporary global political discourse, India has emerged as a centrepiece.
Multiple countries are finding values in alliances with India. India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world and a shift in the attitude of the West towards China has significantly increased the spotlight on India. India's favourable demographics, its position as an attractive alternative to China, and its centrality in the key strategic geography of the Indo-Pacific have together contributed to making this India's moment.
India’s foreign policy, for the longest time, was defined by non-alliance and neutrality. This brought forth criticism from major world players since India refused to take a verbal stance of many matters of international importance. This has significantly changed since Modi’s reign and has increased ever since S. Jaishankar took the helm.
The Indian Navy's rescue of a commercial ship that had been hijacked by pirates off Somalia's coast is a sign that Indian policymakers today are ready and willing to assume operational burdens in order to ensure the safety of commercial shipping as well as freedom of navigation in strategically vital waterways.
Economic growth and substantial domestic transformation have been at the forefront of Modi’s agenda and this has been reflected in his foreign policy. India’s ideologies as well as needs determine the future course of action. The Modi government's regional outlook under the ‘Neighbourhood First’ approach has sought to promote regional stability and prosperity, recognising the importance of a secure and cooperative neighbourhood for India's overall development and security.
South and Southeast Asia are connected through the Bay of Bengal which is an important zone of maritime connectivity. This new focus has also allowed India to focus on a significant security challenge that previously went unseen: China.
One of the first instances where India visibly challenged a global initiative and did that alone was in 2014 when India challenged the Belt and Road Initiative. In a few years, India retaliated with strong military power against China’s military aggressiveness. India also managed to balance the power struggle between Russia and the USA and worked fruitfully with the USA without entering into a formal alliance.
The world, which has been more used to a pontificating India of the past, today hears an Indian voice on the global stage that is capable of articulating a narrative of a responsible stakeholder, which, despite being firmly steeped in its own ethos, is not willing to shirk global commitments.
As a fast developing country which is a stronghold for major powers in their rally against China, India also sought to represent the Global South. Global South as a region is defined by underdeveloped and developing countries which bear the brunt of asymmetrical international systems including international law and procedures of intergovernmental organizations. India has voiced the need for reforms in international organizations and seeks to be the voice of the global south.
FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES UNDER MODI 3.0
Narendra Modi has put the spotlight on Southeast Asian nations for many years now. This is expected to continue in the future. Significant leaders of the Southeast Asian nations were invited to witness Modi’s oath-taking ceremony. Efforts like these and more reflect the government’s ‘Neighborhood First’ priority.
In 2014, the Act East Policy replaced the Look East Policy and it completes a decade in 2024. Renewed partnerships with ASEAN, India’s land and maritime neighbour, and also Japan, Korea and Australia will garner long-lasting strength in the strategic leadership.
Secondly, another significant area of cooperation for the world is in the Indo-Pacific region. The area has gained a lot of attention in the past year due to China’s increased aggressiveness. The USA seeks to have a stake in the region and India is among the major players with whom alliances are beneficial.
The USA, Japan, Australia and India have also participated in QUAD, an informal strategic forum. The Indo-Pacific region is very dynamic and new relationships are forged every day. Due to India’s geographic positioning within the region, it is a key player of utmost importance. India’s IPOI (Indo-Pacific Ocean Initiative) will gain greater attention since there are more than 12 partners in the same.
If India’s vision of the Indo-Pacific is to succeed, the IPOI must gain some credible momentum. India will continue actively participating in the IPEF and US-led Indo-Pacific programmes, keeping the ASEAN centrality intact.
Thirdly, India-US partnership has worked very well in the past without India formally embracing an alliance. The international importance of both the countries is increasing every other year. Under Modi 3.0, this partnership will see new phases. India has very high economic and trade ambitions and an economic agreement with the USA will also assist India in that. In order to achieve the aim of independence in the semiconductor industry, inviting higher investment and technology is a key priority for India.
Another significant area in which India’s foreign policy will see changes is Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). FTAs help India raise exports, attract FDI and secure valuable technologies. Ongoing FTAs with Japan, Singapore, Australia etc., have turned out to be very beneficial. Some FTAs, like those with the UK, EU and ASEAN, will be reviewed. Countries are more interested in trade agreements in the areas of digital economy and e-commerce.
Fifthly, significant regional organizations, especially those that operate within the Indo-Pacific region like BIMSTEC, will witness a changed dynamic and increased importance. In September 2024, the sixth BIMSTEC summit will take place in Bangkok. The BIMSTEC is likely to induct three new members (Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore). Another regional organization, SAARC, should ideally be reactivated.
This will require a better relationship between India and Pakistan. Currently, the organization does not utilize its potential because of the multiple internal conflicts between member nations. Bilateral partnerships with Australia, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brazil, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya, Korea, Mauritius, Oman, Tanzania, Singapore, Sri Lanka, etc. will continue to thrive during PM Modi’s third term.
The Middle East is an area of focus for Narendra Modi. The region is in strife with geopolitical tensions and the dynamic is ever-changing. India has been advocating for better peace and prosperity in the Middle East. Stability in the area means greater geopolitical and economic gains for India. The region is also an important maritime zone and trade route and any hurdle like the blocking of the Suez Canal can significantly impact India’s trade.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a viable alternative to avoid the Bab El-Mandeb strait, which is a major chokepoint for maritime traffic. Under Modi 3.0, there will be speedy development of the IMEC. The bilateral FTAs such as the India-UAE CEPA, and initiatives like I2U2 or the IMEC are going to play a larger role in securing India’s strategic interests on the Western front.
In uncertain areas in the global arena, India’s voice has been welcomed by multiple partners. However, issues like climate change, reforms of multilateral organizations, energy and food security, taming inflation etc., require very careful deliberation. In its aim to represent the Global South on the global stage, India has spearheaded multiple interests of the developing countries through international forums like BRICS and IBSA. Under Modi 3.0, one of the biggest achievements of India can be a successful reform of the UNSC.
Under Modi 3.0, India has also seen a dramatic rise in the use of soft power. A lot of India’s strength lies in its culture, people and geography. Indian diaspora is spread across the world and with it, Indian culture. The White House of the USA wished people across the globe ‘Happy Diwali’.
Indian restaurants are available in almost all major cities of the world and people from different ethnicities and cultures have experienced Indian culture to some extent. India is home to some of the world’s most beautiful scenic locations and the inflow of tourists is relatively high. The government has undertaken multiple initiatives to better the tourism sector in the country. Diplomacy can pay long-lasting dividends only when it is supported by its national culture and interests.
CHALLENGES TO FOREIGN POLICY UNDER MODI 3.0
With increased popularity and stakes, a significant challenge for India will be to balance the major global powers, mainly the USA, Russia and China. India will have to carefully deliberate over its priorities and diplomatically manage its relations with these three countries considering India depends on all of them for various needs.
The USA and China are staunch rivals in the current global order and Russia bears the brunt of heavy sanctions by the West. India will have to take a stand for its needs and ideologies without compromising on its identity and independence.
Ensuring economic stability and growth will be crucial for Modi’s international ambitions. Attracting foreign investment, boosting exports, and fostering innovation will be essential to project India’s economic resilience. Managing internal challenges like unemployment, infrastructure deficits, and regulatory hurdles will have direct implications on India’s global economic engagements.
The geopolitical landscape is marked by volatility, with conflicts, trade wars, and shifting alliances. Modi’s government will need to be agile in responding to these changes, ensuring that India’s strategic interests are protected.
CONCLUSION
Modi 3.0 will focus on enhancing border infrastructure, bolstering defence capabilities, and strengthening “minilateral” strategic alliances with like-minded countries to ensure peace in the Indo-Pacific, including the Taiwan Strait. India set the tone in its quest for global leadership by hosting the G-20 Summit in Delhi in September 2023. Now, it aims for a credible leadership role in the Global South, evidenced by substantial progress in its increased engagement with Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia.
India has been acknowledged as a strong and important voice of the Global South. This position was cemented by India’s advocacy for the inclusion of the African Union within the G20. India is attempting to find its niche, where it enjoys a more welcoming space. This strategic positioning not only enhances India’s diplomatic influence but also fosters stronger economic and political ties with emerging economies.
Modi’s third term is poised to maintain momentum and drive comprehensive foreign policy reforms, strengthen strategic alliances, and solidify India’s leadership in the Global South. By enhancing regional security, pursuing UNSC membership, and fostering global partnerships, India aims to emerge as a pivotal player on the world stage.
BY MADALSA JAIN
CENTRE FOR LAW AND POLITICS
TEAM GEOSTRATA
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