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The Middle East is at a crossroads, with the regional dynamics shifting. China's brokering of a Saudi-Iranian détente had promised stability, but it faltered after the killing of Iranian leaders and the renewal of Khamenei's hostility toward the West and Israel-a tumult that has called into question the sustainability of that rapprochement.
Illustration by The Geostrata
Meanwhile, the US is pushing for Saudi-Israel normalisation in an apparent bid to contain Iran's influence, with the aim of reshaping security and economic partnerships. Egypt, controller of the Suez Canal and suppressor of the Muslim Brotherhood, was then playing a key role, while the UAE was exploiting new opportunities. These evolutions could have major repercussions for world geopolitics and energy markets.
IRANIAN FOREIGN POLICY OBJECTIVE
The Chinese felt a huge sense of relief when they got to broker a détente between the Saudis and the Iranians. It was believed that these two regional powers going head to head would create situations that would end the cycle of religious and proxy warfare.
There was a belief that trade would be enhanced between both partners as it was assessed that about US $1 Billion would be attained in the short term and much more in the long term. From a diplomatic perspective, Iran and Saudi Ambassadors Alireza Enayati and Abdullah Alanazi began their roles.
While these may look promising, the death of President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian have changed the dynamics within the Iranian side. The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has become hostile towards the West and even stated that Israel would be destroyed. Therefore with the leader being influenced by Shillite-based Islamic interpretation, it would be hard for Tehran to be on terms with the Sunni-led Monarchies in the Gulf.
This is important as Iran unlike other states in the world is influenced by the interpretation of the Shia doctrine. Within this, the right to interpretation can be done by Ayatollah which helps him to create a Foreign Policy that benefits the Islamic regime. Dr Rakel explains, “the theory of velayat e faqih, it is the supreme leader who ultimately decides on important foreign and domestic affairs.”
Furthermore to keep power in Tehran, the Islamic government through its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has developed a close relation with the Supreme Leader that has resulted in the government protecting its image. It has funded external groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq, Hamas in the Gaza Strip and lastly Ansarallah in Yemen.
Through the IRGC, Iran can provide financial and military assistance to the organisation whose main task is to establish the Palestinian State. Since these groups were not militarily powerful than the Jewish State, they began to engage in Hybrid Warfare. This warfare involves conventional, cyber and irregular methods to subvert the enemy into achieving the objective.
These groups will therefore continue to engage in violence against Israel. Lastly, Iran has been developing a nuclear program that assists in its regional objective of becoming a great power. As of the latest data available, Iran has been able to enrich about 60% of Uranium that could be consolidated as weapons of mass destruction if the process is completed properly.
Through the enrichment of uranium, it will become difficult for Iranian-Saudi relations to be cordial as the fear of annihilation will become primordial in the minds of the Gulf Monarchies.
Therefore looking at the threats from Iran and China, the region’s security custodian the United States will take considerable action to step up the defensive capabilities of the Gulf and Israel. It then brings the question: Will the United States heed the requirements of the Allies in the Middle East?
UNITED STATES EFFORTS FOR SAUDI-ISREAL RAPPROCHEMENT
When looking at the Middle East, one of the key problems that the region is facing is the status of Palestinian Statehood. With the raging violence for the past seven decades, it has been difficult for states in the region to live in peace while knowing Iran is on the brink of nuclear armageddon with Israel.
The United States being the security guarantor for the Middle East will not be idle looking at its adversaries threatening its position in the region. It will therefore take measures to bring rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel that will usher the Middle East distanced from violence.
For the Saudi’s themselves normalisation with Israel will provide them access towards the defence, economic and technological resources. Furthermore with the impending threat against the Iranian Theocracy would push Riyadh and Tel Aviv together despite public backlash against the Jewish State.
This was stated by Mohammed Bin Salman himself articulating that in the past four decades, the leadership in Palestine has rejected the offers of peace from Israel, therefore they should accept the offer or stop complaining altogether.
Defensively it would be an asymmetrical relationship between both members. Israel would provide military equipment, intelligence and naval patrolling and the Saudis would provide the strategic location against Iran and its adversaries alongside cooperation with the west-led alliance system to keep Iran at bay.
Tel Aviv would create an Iron Dome system that ensures the protection of the Oil facilities in Dammam and Jeddah against the Houthis. Furthermore, the Dome could be equipped to possess the Patriot Missiles supplied by the United States and Tamir interceptor missile from Israel. This will be advantageous to the Saudis as they have been facing the threat of drone and missile strikes by the Houthis.
The development would be done through the partnership of private and semi-government defence organisations such as Saudi Arabian Military Industries, Rafael Advanced Defence System and Lockheed Martin. From a broader geopolitical perspective, a defensively prepared Saudi will entail a stronger Gulf against the Shillite Theocracy.
The creation of a military bloc between the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia will look at military exercises geared towards training the special operations force against adverse situations. It should also look at preparing the Saudi Army to be combat active and enhance the active duty personnel from 2,80,000 to 7,50,000.
United States should create a minilateral organisation comprising of Israel, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain that focuses on Securitisation of the Red and Arabian Gulf. These nations should look at enhancing surveillance capabilities in the waters, conducting Naval joint exercises for patrolling against the Iranian Navy.
It should also look towards analysing cyber threats emerging from online propaganda through regulations and active awareness in public infrastructures. Through establishing MoUs with Western and Israeli led technological and cybersecurity cooperations, the Saudi’s can be sophisticated enough to take on the digital warfare conducted by Iran.
The Saudis can also cooperate with the joint Israeli-UAE led surveillance of Socotra Island. From the above it would ensure a comprehensive strategy towards containment of Iran and its allies.
Finally the United States should try signing the Nuclear Agreement with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This would have various strategic benefits for the environment, economy and security. Firstly through constructing a Nuclear Power Plant that would provide decoupling from coal and provide an cleaner source for the Saudi state to meets its energy requirements domestically.
It would also act as a supplier of excessive nuclear energy to nations if required providing alternative sources of funding away from the petroleum industry and creating new jobs in the market to curb unemployment.
Despite the bipartisan calls of US facilitating the agreement to be civil in nature, the security dilemma that the Saudis are against their Shilite counterparts would entail them to press Washington for an enrichment facility that is against the Non Proliferation Treaty. If the Americans wish to maintain their strategic influence over the region they must forego the NPT for their broader Foreign Policy Objectives.
REGIONAL AND GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES
In an event that the United States and its allies decide to fight the Islamic Republic of Iran and its allies in the region. These are the benefits that the US partners in the region and various stakeholders of the political economy would receive.
For Saudi Arabia with the potential elimination of the Islamic Republic, Riyadh would become the hegemon in the region. This would result in the creation of a new era of peace in the region that would be guaranteed by the United States.
Furthermore it would become the hub for investment in the tourism, economy and energy sector that would usher the region to a new future. In the short term aspect, supply routes would be safeguarded from adversaries threatening to disrupt global economy through seizing oil tankers and commercial vessels.
The United Arab Emirates would be able to gain more land in the region through obtaining the islands of Siri and Abu Musa, that solidifies control over the waters near the strait of Hormuz.
From the perspective of renewable energy, Siri and Abu Musa islands, have attractive Offsore Wind Energy potentials for Offshore Wind Turbine Generators installations. As of 2024, Abu Dhabi has about 44% of their domestic supply of to meet the UAE's economic requirements and environmental goals.
Egypt's suppression of the Muslim Brotherhood bolsters investor confidence, attracting foreign capital. Sustained Suez Canal operations ensure steady revenue. Improved stability enhances Egypt's diplomatic leverage, fostering stronger international partnerships and reinforcing its position as a key regional player in economic and political spheres.
CONCLUSION
The Middle East is in a vulnerable middle of a tectonic shift in geopolitical dynamics. The détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, mediated by China, had promised initial stability, which the change in the guard in Tehran has now claimed again. Meanwhile, Washington is pursuing Saudi-Israeli normalization in an effort to counterbalance Iranian influence and its nuclear ambition.
Egypt further cements its regional relevance internally with stability and the proper functioning of the Suez Canal, while the UAE watches for gain in a changing landscape. These developments, intertwined with complex security interests and economic stakes, are fast reordering alliances and power equations. Quite literally, the region is at a crossroads, given its implications for global geopolitics and energy markets.
BY SANJAY GURURAJAN
TEAM GEOSTRATA
Crucial!
Important Analysis
great read!