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Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s departure from Bangladesh is the latest demonstration of political unrest in India’s neighbourhood. Anarchy is not confined to Bangladesh only; over the past three years, most of India’s neighbouring states have experienced political turmoil.
Illustration by The Geostrata
We witnessed power vacuums, tumultuous politics, and major riots in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. All these seismic upheavals have undoubtedly affected India and its “Neighbours First” policy, creating an enigma for decision making authorities regarding the actions to be taken and the assessment of the situation.
Amidst the socio-economic turmoil and abrupt change of government in Bangladesh, one of India’s priorities is to work through diplomatic channels to protect the rights of Hindus and other Indic minorities in Bangladesh.
India shares its longest border of 4096 km with Bangladesh, hence it is pertinent for India to take intense security measures as there is a strong possibility of escalated infiltrations and smuggling.
Having faced nationwide anti-government protests, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned on 5th August 2024, boarded a Bangladeshi Air Force Lockheed C-130J and fled the country. She initially landed at the Hindon Air Force Station near Delhi, where she was greeted by Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, among others.
Her resignation came as an outcome of intense socio political turmoil which led to mass violence disproportionately affecting the minorities, human rights abuses, and destruction of state and democratic institutions such as vandalising the statue of Bangladeshi Freedom Fighter ‘Bangabandu’ Sheikh Mujibur Rehman and arson at the Indira Gandhi Cultural Centre.
Violence in Bangladesh began earlier this year, starting from July 14th as students protested against a job quota system, which initially reserved 30% seats for the freedom fighters of Mukti Joddhas’ children.
The government’s unwillingness to budge ignited huge protests and the following violence led to the death of nearly 500 people across Bangladesh. Critics of the provision had highlighted that the number of freedom fighters or ‘Mukti Joddhas’ who could claim quota benefits have gradually reduced, and this would further lead to underutilisation of quota and may increase the chances of corruption in quota allocation.
Hasina’s fall and the crumbling institution of her party, the Awami League, prompted forces such as the Khaleda Zia-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the radical Jamaat-e-Islami to step in to fill the political void.
Considering the level of violence and chaos in Bangladesh and the pro-China and pro-Pakistan policies coming with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) inevitable rise to power, policymakers must evaluate the challenges and the competition fabricated by China in the region.
For India, readjusting with the new government will definitely be a difficult task, but not unmanageable. The experience of Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka will perhaps work here.
India has always seen Hasina an ally who tried to neutralise extremist Islamist groups and has helped in eliminating insurgent elements in India’s north-eastern region in the past. Both India and Bangladesh have shared a longstanding diplomatic partnership which has strengthened over the past two decades.
The bilateral ties have reaped mutual benefits for New Delhi and Dhaka to recognise each other as development partners, deepening trade and economic engagement between the two sides and enhancing cooperation on cross-border security.
The ousted former PM of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina during her tenure of 15 years inked major partnership agreements with India on several infrastructure projects to boost connectivity, particularly in India’s northeast region.
In July 2023, the Indian government-backed EXIM Bank of India issued around US$ 7.9 billion to Bangladesh as an aid for developing India’s Infrastructure Projects overseas. Likewise, the Mongla Port Upgradation Project under Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal (BBIN) initiative which is being developed by Egis India aims to bolster trade and commerce among BBIN countries.
The Indo-Bangladesh protocol route covers coastal waters and aims to improve connectivity via its inland waterways routes. It includes Bangladesh’s major ports - Mongla, Chattogram, Safardighi and Payra as ports of call under the protocol route agreement.
Another upcoming Multimodal Matarbari Deep Sea Port Project in Bangladesh is scheduled to be operational by the year 2027 and aims to enable industrial value chains in northeast India. This port is funded by the Japan International Cooperation Agency under the Bay of Bengal Industrial Hubs Initiative.
Moreover, the Akhaura-Agartala Cross Border Railway Link, which became operational in November 2023, represents the shortest link between India’s Northeast states and West Bengal through Bangladesh, aiming to boost trade connectivity between both countries.
The project is a 15 km long link which has been built at a cost of Rs 11 billion. This project will reduce the travel time and help Northeastern India access Bangladesh’s Chattogram Port through shorter routes.
Thus, an unfriendly Bangladesh may lead to delays in numerous ongoing connectivity initiatives related to the development of India’s Northeastern region, India’s Act East policy, and trilateral projects linked with Bangladesh, India, and Nepal.
The India-Bangladesh Shared Vision for the Future states that Bangladesh is the converging point of India’s Neighbourhood First policy, Act East Policy, SAGAR Doctrine, the Indo-Pacific vision, and a reliable partner in the development of India’s northeastern region.
IT IS TIME FOR INDIA TO STEP BACK
As the Yunus-led interim government is established, It would be surrounded by multiple problematic and controversial issues that need to be settled.
Here, India must take a step back and transform its foreign and security policy options in Bangladesh, while being proactive about the existing investment projects and for the protection of religious minorities like Hindus.
It must give up its narrow approach, like supporting the Awami League over the other political parties and convey its affirmation to be a supportive neighbour keen to engage with the interim regime and subsequent governments across all policy issues. The phrase “one cannot choose one’s neighbour” applies to India in a similar manner, just as it does to Bangladesh.
BY SAKSHI NARANG
TEAM GEOSTRATA
Insightful !
Well articulated
Top notch workkkk!
great read!