China’s Military Modernisation: A Buildup For Invasion?

The Chinese Communist Party’s vision of rejuvenation by reunifying Taiwan back with its territory is still burning talks around the world. Taiwan, the island in discussion is just roughly 100 miles away from the coast of the People’s Republic of China. Since the 17th century, it has been under the control of China.

Illustration by The Geostrata

But in between, it became a Japanese colony in 1895, when the Qing Dynasty lost the first Sino-Japanese war. And again in 1945, China took control over the island when Japan was defeated in the Second World War. 

The Kuomintang Party fled to the island and constructed the government of the Republic of China also known as Taiwan. China exerts considerable diplomatic pressure on other countries not to recognise Taiwan. In 1991, things started to fall in the right place, when the ROC proclaimed that the war with the People’s Republic of China was over.

The “One Country, Two Systems” policy was proposed by China, which stated that it would allow Taiwan significant Autonomy if it agreed to come under the control of Beijing. However, Taiwan’s ROC government rejected the offer, which again increased the tension between the two parties.

In 2000, Chen Shui-bian was elected as the President of Taiwan, he and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) openly backed Taiwan's “Independence”. But when Mr Chen got re-elected in 2004, it alarmed Beijing and China passed the “Anti-secession law”, declaring its right to use the “Non-peaceful means” against them if Taiwan ever tried to “secede” China.

But later the Kuomintang Party succeeded Mr Chen and sought a closer relationship with the PRC (“Taiwan's Past and Future: Complexity and Contestation”). This didn’t last for long, Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP got elected as the President of Taiwan in 2016, and officially refused the One China policy, which made China cut off official communications with Taiwan. 

PROVOCATIONS OF BELIEFS

In 2022, the official visit by US speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan put everything upside down, which made China respond with an unprecedented show of force, conducting military exercises around Taiwan in retaliation (“Tracking the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis | ChinaPower Project”).

Since then, China has started using its “Grey Zone Warfare” tactics of sending its fighter jets in record-breaking numbers near Taiwan and conducting military drills in response to the political exchanges between the US and Taiwan. The same year, China’s warplane incursion into the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) nearly doubled (Lewis). In this report, we look into an attack simulation of the Chinese PLA and the armed forces of ROC in detail. 

Map by The Geostrata

SIMULATED POTENTIAL FUTURE INVASION

Fujian Province of China is the main region from where this mobilization could happen. As we know the Chinese fighter jets have been making incursions on Taiwan's ADIZ, placing this situation as the center, an airstrike would be the first thing which will be going to happen. China has been upgrading and reinforcing its air bases closest to Taiwan along the southeastern coast.

Since the friction between them, China has started three potential bases Longtian Airbase, Huian Airbase and Zhangzhou Airbase, the main upgrades that have been made in these bases are an expansion of Aprons, Runway expansion, hardened aircraft shelters and construction of ammunition storage units (“Upgrades for Chinese military airbases facing Taiwan hint at war plans”). PLAAF made its first strategic move by converting its old Shenyang J-6 fighter jets into drones after its decommissioning in 2010 (Banerjee).

This conversion was to leverage the obsolete aircraft as a decoy to help the Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) tactics. There is a high chance during one such regular incursion China could launch massive numbers of these drones which will overwhelm Taiwan's air defense systems. And attack exposed Taiwan’s Air defence systems, logistic hubs, airfields and Government buildings by launching Guided missiles from the mainland to reduce the resistance capability of the ROC. 

In the meantime, China could mobilize its troops to the contested islands of Kinmen and Matsu for a naval blockade by applying a salvo model attack with its large amphibious fleet and its Air Force (Maizland and Sacks).

This will give the forces enough time to reach Penghu County, an archipelago of 90 islands & islets to launch joint blockade operations on the Makung Naval base and the Penghu airport. If Taiwan forces have placed the mines in those regions as part of their military preparedness, it will reduce the phase of the PLA forces to reach the mainland.

As the Chinese forces are quite good at their amphibious warfare tactics, they would probably choose the Fangliao beach, where they would neutralise the Pingtung Airbase and the Tsoying Naval Bawouldse which will completely cut off their backup from the allies (Easton). And next in the cards would be the Port of Anping and the Tainan Airbase. 

Map by The Geostrata

PUTTING THE ALLIED FORCES ON BAY

If the salvo model attack is orchestrated without any flaws, there is a high chance of Taiwan seeking military assistance from US forces stationed in Japanese island Okinawa.For decades, the Chinese and Japan have contested over the Senkaku island for decades (“Situation of the Senkaku Islands”).

The rocky chain, which is 1200 kms( miles ) Southwest of Tokyo and only 205 miles from the east coast of China. Beijing considered it a direct threat to national sovereignty when Japan tried and bought a few islands from a private Japanese owner in 2012.

This is when the Maritime Militia of China has become more professional and better equipped under the leadership of Xi Jinping. Japan, being at the receiving end of China’s salami tactics to undermine its control of the islands. China’s Grey-zone tactics and Japan's responses have direct implications for Southeast Asian claimant states in the South China Sea disputes which makes Senkaku vulnerable for a possible incursion.  

Here Japan already  has a special layer of protection that can’t be peeled back-the US-Japan security Treaty which requires Washington to defend its territory. And the incursion expects an reaffirmation on their partnership.

And then there is a high chance that the PLA forces would target the potential Taoyuan Airport and the Keelung Naval Base which is closer to the capital city Taipei with the Close in weapons systems (CIWS) in its Guided MIssile destroyers and Frigates (“The Ambitious Dragon: Beijing's Calculus for Invading Taiwan by 2030”). 

CHANCE OF RETALIATION

China could be in the lead in its first wave but the Taiwanese aircraft which survived the initial bombardment could stand a potential retaliation. Into the mountainside near the Chiashan Air Force base in Hualien, Taiwan has constructed a network of tunnels constructed based on the new Austrian Tunnelling Method (NATM) leads to the fortified underground hangars which serve as a hideout for a few of the ROCAF’s fighter jets that includes the modern F-16 viper (Helfrich). This naval blockade made by the People’s Liberation Army’s Navy and the maritime militia would be a significant challenge to the US forces to assist its ally (Gatopoulos).

Analysing the data of China’s frequent flights into Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ) clearly shows that it is within easy reach of the PLA Air Force. The only way the US forces could help is by giving air support with the help of Bulk tanker aircraft for air-to-air refuelling or by sending its advanced aircraft carrier fleets to the region (Stewart and Ali).

In the meantime, the armed forces of Taiwan can retaliate against the Chinese forces by guerrilla warfare tactics using its Asymmetric Warfare Arms in the short term using the advantage of its terrain without going out into a full-fledged war. As we have seen the larger Russian forces are being overthrown by the smaller Ukrainian forces by its Asymmetrical warfare tactics. 

CONCLUSION

Taiwan has very much more importance to the United States than anyone in the world. It does have economic value for the US because Taiwan’s TSMC is one of the world’s largest Semiconductor manufacturing companies which aids the technological development of the United States but more than that Taiwan is vital for the defense of Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines (“The Strategic Importance of Taiwan to the United States and Its Allies: Part Two – Policy since the Start of the Russia-Ukraine War”).

If China managed to accomplish its mission of reunification, it would pose a much greater threat to these countries. China would be able to project its power far deep into the Pacific, which would be a real possibility if it observed its recent engagement with the Solomon Islands and with the other Pacific island nations. By this, the United States will lose its relevance in this region and China will dominate the world.

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BY JAMES VASANTH

TEAM GEOSTRATA

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