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Political upheaval after Sheikh Hasina's resignation has brought about a series of changes in the governance of Bangladesh and the country's ties with India. Regarding the historical sophistication of India-Bangladesh relations and the accelerated rise of radicalism in Bangladesh, the transition has aggravated regional security concerns.
Illustration by The Geostrata
This article briefly addresses issues of intelligence sharing for regional security and the challenges it entails, discussing in detail how the relationship between the two countries has evolved in the post-Hasina era.
HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF INDIA-BANGLADESH INTELLIGENCE COOPERATION
Bangladesh and India have a long history of cooperation over security issues. Since the incidence of transnational terrorism began in South Asia, both have relied considerably on each other in the form of bilateral agreements to work through cross-border terrorism, cross-border weapons and drugs trade and foreign influence operations targeted towards public discourse by insurgent groups present in the bordering areas of both countries.
The Sheikh Hasina-led government in Bangladesh has assumed a significant role in encouraging intelligence cooperation to lower anti-Indian activities in Bangladesh. During Hasina's rule, vital collaboration against rebel organisations operating in Northeastern India and better coordination in cross-border trafficking and radicalisation surfaced.
However, her departure and the following political upheaval present an opportunity and a challenge to reconquer the previously existing collaboration between the security systems of both nations.
IMPLICATIONS OF THE POLITICAL TRANSITION
The political climate in Bangladesh has shifted much since the departure of Sheikh Hasina. The interim government is responsible for maintaining stable external relations while addressing domestic issues. Even after the political turmoil, Dhaka has repeatedly issued to retain its strong bilateral legacy between the two Sampriti nation-states.
New Delhi is worried at the rising anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, which appears increasingly assuaged by foreign influence operations hatched by terrorists in Bangladesh's bordering regions with Northeast India. The growing bitterness featuring heightened anti-India rhetoric in Bangladesh is being exploited by external powers-including Pakistan's ISI and elements across the border.
The interplay of these dynamics increases the existing political void while also worsening the persistent security dilemma that has always been marked by the fragile relationship between the two countries.
The 4,096-kilometer porous border, which often becomes a passage for illegal activities, demands more attention in effectively countering growing challenges. In some industries, intelligence cooperation between Bangladesh and India rises while unknowns prevail. They signalled intent to enhance shared operations over both dangers of cross-border radicalisation and weapon and drug trafficking.
Radicalisation growths in Bangladesh impact India’s security, most notably in West Bengal and Assam. In this respect, Indian intelligence agencies have increased their efforts at having closer cooperation in tracing radical networks with their Bangladeshi counterparts.
Real-time intelligence sharing forms some of the collaborative efforts being taken to improve the employment of cutting-edge surveillance technologies, which is part of the projects being undertaken.
As significant as the Hasina period and after her political fall, the defence of sensitive regions along the India-Bangladesh border has continued to be at the forefront. BSF and BGD engaged with each other in very interlocked ways regarding the exchange of information concerning organised crime networks and infiltration methods found in places desperate for intervention because of their interaction. In light of the present geopolitical caucus in the South Asian region, India considers Bangladesh an essential partner in the regional power balance.
In the last two years, the bilateral scope of intelligence-sharing agreements has expanded to issues such as maritime security in the Bay of Bengal, which both nations are deeply interested in.
Active cooperation through joint intelligence sharing with maritime patrols has been proposed to address piracy, illegal fishing, and other naval risks. Even though there are numerous areas for better cooperation, several obstacles between the two countries must be resolved against public discontent and political discord; the Dhaka interim administration is underplaying to manage a very hostile climate.
The effectiveness of the bilateral agreement, especially in information sharing, may be threatened by this climate. Political transformation may provide a conducive environment for radical elements to take off.
Such groups could establish transnational links in regions of poor governance, complicating intelligence operations. Indian and Bangladeshi relations have had intermittent bouts of hostility that have marred their inherent elements of solidarity.
There may be concerns over possible confidentiality breaches and misappropriation of shared information that may hinder the smooth dissemination of intelligence. There are also external factors, such as the rise of global powers, especially China, in India-Bangladesh relations. India’s strategic objectives, particularly those dealing with the coordination of intelligence efforts, may be compromised due to China’s rising influence within Bangladesh.
THE ROAD AHEAD
India and Bangladesh must also enhance, not restrict, intelligence sharing for the purposes stated earlier. This may be made possible through several ways, which include establishing mechanisms for intelligence sharing; all processes will be enhanced and made more accessible by introducing a particular system for the consistent flow of information.
The goals of such a mechanism include sharing information in real-time, assessing threats, and managing the crisis among other stakeholders in the intelligence cycle. Building and Engaging Human Resources, as much as it involves upgrading intelligence institutions’ operational and technical capabilities, both countries are encouraged to support the implementation of such upward development programs.
This can include the exchange of personnel, the transfer of technologies, and the conducting of training programs. The operation of these platforms would also reduce the influence of third parties.
Improvement under the defence sector of sending and receiving signals new technologies, i.e., SIGINT (Capabilities of Signals Intelligence) such as electronic fencing or drones, would significantly improve the intelligence capabilities of the nations by providing better management of the borders.
Such growth or return could be achieved in the long term because both countries may be engaged in the bilaterally beneficial use of such technologies.
Overall, the country’s political evolution brings opportunities and challenges to India and Bangladesh’s intelligence cooperation. While the ousting of Sheikh Hasina has broken the detente illustrated by the promise of cooperation, the countries’ similar security interests provide strong grounds for collaboration in future.
BY MANAV THAKRAR
CENTRE FOR DIPLOMACY AND INNOVATION
TEAM GEOSTRATA
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