Augmenting Indian Foreign Policy - Deepening Focus On Turkmenistan

The growing importance of Indian Foreign Policy in the world calls for a critical review, particularly vis-à-vis newly emerging indispensable regions. Notwithstanding the potential geopolitical significance, India's engagement with Central Asia has remained relatively narrow. In this scenario, Turkmenistan emerges as a country that offers India a chance to enhance its energy security, promote strong regional connections, and extend its influence deep into Central Asia.

Illustration by The Geostrata

Improving relations between India and Turkmenistan can open up new hydrocarbon reserves and balance out the impact of established powers like Russia and China, thereby enhancing India's strategic footprint. This piece examines the strategic imperatives for enhanced India-Turkmenistan cooperation, centered around energy security and infrastructure development as significant vectors for India's expansion into Central Asia.

THE TAPI PIPELINE: ENCOURAGING INDO-PAKISTAN COOPERATION

With the fourth-largest global natural gas reserves, Turkmenistan is an indispensable partner in meeting India’s increasing energy needs and is also instrumental in the dynamics of supply and demand for energy in this competitive world.  Both countries will immensely benefit from increased cooperation in the energy sector, especially as natural gas consumption continues to rise in India, ensuring Turkmenistan’s gas producers have a reliable and long-term market. Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline to diversify its natural gas imports away from Qatar.

Utilizing this opportunity created by Turkmenistan’s regional influence and its growing power projection abroad, India can continue staying engaged with Islamabad to wield pressure towards constructive participation rather than obstructing the pipeline’s construction.

By proposing alternative solutions for their mutual energy security concerns, India could call on Pakistan to prioritize and participate in the pipeline construction process. In the process, India would reach out to Pakistan with collaborative solutions for problems of common energy security, making it an active player in the project.

Successful realization is bound to bring more than expected dividends and give impetus to enhanced energy security and bilateral cooperation. This path of energy-driven engagement has enormous potential for changing the nature of Indo-Pak relations from historical animosity towards mutual benefit.

STRENGTHENING INDIA'S ENERGY NETWORK THROUGH THE TAPI PIPELINE

India could explore the viability of extending the pipeline up to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which would increase diplomatic and economic ties between the countries, diversify the end-use and enhance the security of the gas supply.

The vast resource endowment, mainly the oil & gas in Uzbekistan and uranium reserves in Tajikistan would allow India to diversify its resource portfolio and help sustain the growth model.

In this context, as a regional power, India should actively step forward, providing technology, initiating dialogue, and even providing solutions for energy security and cooperation, with the primary objective of mutually beneficial relationships as a regional power. By championing the TAPI project, encouraging cooperation with Central Asian states, and thus fulfilling its responsibility of partnership with neighbours, India will demonstrate devotion to sustainable development, diversification of energy resources, and political stability for itself and its neighbours.

BOLSTERING INDIAN ENERGY SUPPLY WITH IMPROVED TRANSIT INFRASTRUCTURE

Turkmenistan's strategic location at the heart of Central Asia offers a pivotal opportunity for India to tap into that vast economic potential, diversify its trade partnerships, reduce dependence on traditional routes, and mitigate geopolitical risks.

Correspondingly, with the operationalization of Chabahar port in Iran, India should proactively pursue the construction of critical rail infrastructure that links Chabahar to Turkmenistan.

This transformational project is conceived to be an integral part of the International North-South Transport Corridor(INSTC) that would bypass the roadblocks thrown up by Pakistan and, at the same time, connect Indian products and services seamlessly with the emerging markets of Central Asia while offering a direct overland trade route to Europe via Turkmenistan's involvement in the Trans-Caspian corridor.

India has to operationalize its 'Connect Central Asia’ policy, which is based on political, security, economic, and cultural relations with the following four "Cs": Commerce, Connectivity, Consular, and Community—from agreements like the Ashgabat to the concrete implementation of critical initiatives like the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan (TAT) railroad line. In this relationship, India will strive to come up with regional connectivity and constructive cooperation based on, but not limited to, natural resources such as oil, gas, and minerals of the Central Asian region.

ENHANCING ENERGY ACCESS THROUGH TRADE REFORM

In the same regard, India can utilize the location of Turkmenistan relative to Afghanistan to continue building up the stability of the region. Involving Turkmenistan may help India contribute towards regional stability and Afghan reconciliation processes, defend its assets, combat terrorism, and contain destabilization that might extend to Central Asia. In this context, Turkmenistan and India must work towards laying robust frameworks for strategic cooperation, going beyond paperwork, for strategic cooperation that demonstrates concrete moves toward enhancing connectivity.

In order to maximize the benefits of cooperation, it is necessary to expedite customs operations and eliminate trade restrictions. These long-term efforts at enhancing logistical processes and removing bottlenecks are essential to enabling Turkmenistan to play this role in the corridor for economic connectivity between India and Central Asia, thereby unlocking mutual growth and prosperity.

STRATEGIC ACCESS THROUGH DIPLOMATIC COLLABORATION

While India realized the strategic value of Central Asia quite recently, China had made major inroads into the region over the past decade. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has served as an impetus within the context of global power redistribution and has made China one of the key players owing to its capabilities of investing heavily in infrastructure sectors.

Currently, China’s rising hydrocarbon interests in Turkmenistan, such as long-term gas sales and cooperation projects, represent a strategic competition for India’s access to the region’s much-needed natural gas resources. However, to counterbalance these trends and enhance the Indian influence in Turkmenistan, New Delhi needs a more comprehensive approach to its relations with the Central Asian state.

Although India cannot directly compete with China’s chequebook diplomacy, it can contribute to advancing economic cooperation primarily based on skilled human capital formation and capacity-building, where financial capabilities do not reach India’s potential.

Initiatives in agriculture, information technology, and education can reinforce the India-Turkmenistan connection by helping to build a more robust foundation for the relationship.

Doing so strengthens bilateral cooperation in the energy sector and lays a solid foundation for further cooperation across multiple other sectors, including healthcare, education, space exploration, and other areas that could mutually benefit both countries.

CULTIVATING TRUST AND SYNERGY FOR REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

India can pursue complementary regional integration initiatives that enhance connectivity without directly competing with the BRI.

These forward-linkage projects would aim to create regional synergies rather than rivalries. India should strategically invest in the INSTC to provide Turkmenistan with diversified trade options.

This would enhance regional integration, reduce Turkmenistan's dependence on limited trade routes, and increase economic bargaining power for Central Asian states while fostering greater regional economic resilience.

Secondly, cooperation in counter-terrorism and disaster management thus stands out as the two areas that could potentially serve as the foundation for an enhanced strategic partnership between Turkmenistan, India and the remaining members of the Central Asia region.

This would not only help India promote a balanced regional order by actively engaging in regional security dialogues and multilateral forums such as the India-Central Asia Summit, which was launched in 2022.

At the same time, interpersonal engagement, cultural fairs, and reciprocal diplomatic exchanges will lay the foundation for trust and understanding between both nations, which will pave the way for better economic and strategic multifaceted cooperation with Turkmenistan.

CONCLUSION

India’s involvement with Turkmenistan offers a multifaceted opportunity for India in the Central Asian region to augment its geopolitical standing in Central Asia and foster mutual economic growth and regional stability. The TAPI pipeline project and investments in transportation infrastructure serve as cornerstones for this burgeoning partnership, offering pathways to energy security and increased trade connectivity.

However, to fully realize the potential of this relationship, India must adopt a holistic approach that transcends traditional sectors of energy cooperation. Bilateral economic cooperation will have to be developed in priority sectors such as IT and pharma, with parallel efforts towards creating business councils to promote Indian private investments in Turkmenistan.

Opportunities to expand cooperation in developing renewable energy and space technology might open new gateways for India to gain strategic access to Turkmenistan’s economy. It will play a crucial role in building lasting people-to-people connections, fostering a deeper understanding between the two nations.

Also, soft power diplomacy involving cultural and educational ties will form a key component in developing bilateral relations.

As India navigates the complex geopolitical landscape of Central Asia, its relations with Turkmenistan cannot be seen as a vector determined by individual strategic interests but as an opportunity to build cooperation that would benefit both parties.

Developing a multifaceted partnership with Turkmenistan can strengthen India’s position as a friendly and responsible power, contributing to the stability and growth of the Central Asian region.

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BY ADITYA MOHAN

TEAM GEOSTRATA

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