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The ongoing Hamas-Israel war has cast the shadows of a wider war in the Middle East and the region beyond.
Illustration by The Geostrata
HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT
The underpinnings of the cause of this war can be debated and analysed by looking in depth at the recent developments in the process of negotiations and the behind-the-curtain diplomacy that was aggressively pursued by the Arab states and Israel. Israel as a country was formed by the UN partition plan in 1948 facing a vehement opposition from its to-be Arab neighbors.
The declaration of independence of Israel soon resulted in the first war between Israel and its six Arab neighbours - Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and the Palestinian Arab forces.
The successive conflicts only widened the rift between these sides until the Camp David Agreement was signed in 1978, resulting in the first Arab country, Egypt, recognising the state of Israel. The Oslo Accords in 1993 were a significant development, and Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation under Yaseer Arafat were brought to the negotiating table to decide on the future of both countries.
The end goal of these talks was a two-state solution to the conflict which has not been realised yet.
The opposition to Arafat’s PLO gave rise to Hamas as a Palestinian militant organisation in the early 1990s. On the other hand, Israel's current administration, led by Benjamin Netanyahu has vehemently opposed the two-state solution. Moreover, the inclusion of the far-right parties in the ruling coalition restricts the Prime Minister from making any compromise to the same.
Gaza after the 2007 Israeli withdrawal, has been blockaded from all sides by Israel and the persecution of the Gazan population sowed feelings of mistrust between the two people living next to each other. The Israeli blockade was followed by a blockade by Egypt on the Rafah border crossing, restricting the flow of essential goods into Gazan territory thereby exacerbating the already dire humanitarian situation in Gaza.
The signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, led to 3 other Arab states - UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, recognising the state of Israel. There were intense mediation efforts for other states to join in. India hosted the G20 summit in September 2023, announcing a corridor from India that would pass through the Middle East to Europe (IMEC). Israel touted this as the most important initiative in its history which would make it a hub for trade and investment in the Middle East.
Central to this initiative was the normalisation of relations between Israel and the regional powerhouse, Saudi Arabia. The backdoor negotiations between the two countries were progressing ahead with the Saudi demand of Palestinian statehood being considered a non-negotiable item. The brutal nature of the conflict means that any such talks are off the table for an indefinite period of time and subject to conditions of the progress made in the resolution of the issue.
The FALLOUT OF THE OCTOBER 7 ATTACKS
Iran, another regional player, and its network of proxies have been gaining ground in the Middle East prior to the conflict, with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. These militias have been supported by Iran by supply of weapons and money to continue their operations throughout the region.
Hamas was being heavily funded by Iran and worked as an agent to weaken its most powerful regional adversary - Israel. The Saudi-Israeli cooperation, however limited in nature, was due to the common perceived threat of Iran and its proxies spread throughout the wider Middle East.
Image Credits: Reuters
In the months following the October 7 attacks, Israel used heavy-handed measures against the Palestinian population, both in the West Bank and Gaza. The Al-Aqsa Mosque clashes of April 2023, where the Israeli police breached the mosque compound instilled feelings of retribution in the Palestinians.
The resulting raids meant multiple injuries, the arrest of hundreds of worshippers from the compound and the heightening of tensions. Even before the war began, 2023 was the deadliest year on record for Palestinians in the last 20 years. The raids by the Israeli forces in the West Bank led to numerous deaths even before the Hamas attacks of October 7.
The Middle East region in global affairs has always been a region of contention and conflict centered around the Arab-Israeli conflict.
The sporadic instances of violence between countries in this region mean that the overall security of the region is classified as volatile. The number of powerful actors vying for control and hegemony in the region means that compromise and conflict resolution measures are never realised. Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia have locked horns against each other, making stability a long-awaited dream for the people in the region.
The supposed negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would have resulted in a breakthrough for the geopolitical conditions in the region which did not materialise due to the Hamas Attacks of October 7. The timing of the attacks and the motive behind them cannot be dictated more clearly as they sought recognition and attention for their plight. The future of the Palestinians hangs in the balance as the war rages on.
BY SIBANI
TEAM GEOSTRATA
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