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In recent years, the idea of net zero emissions by 2050 has gained popularity and emerged as an important goal in climate-related challenges. If a country achieves net zero emissions it means that the government is emitting the same amount of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere as is being removed, hence the overall concentration in the atmosphere is maintained.
Illustration by The Geostrata
With the effects of climate change such as increased average global temperatures, sea level increase, extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity becoming more pronounced, accomplishing this objective has become urgent to protect the Earth’s future and avert further harm to it.
THE URGENCY OF CLIMATE ACTION
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global temperatures could rise to 1.5°C beyond pre-industrial levels by 2030 if the current trajectory persists. Such an increase in global temperatures comes with serious risks including increased heatwaves and droughts, flooding, and extreme loss of biodiversity. The World Bank suggests that climate shocks could force 130 million people into poverty by 2030 unless substantial mitigation efforts are made.
THE PARIS AGREEMENT AND GLOBAL COMMITMENTS
The year 2015 marked a significant shift in the approach to global climate change when the Paris Agreement was adopted.
Almost every country pledged to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius, with an effort to keep it within 1.5 degrees Celsius.
This commitment importantly necessitates achieving net zero emissions by the year 2050. Countries that have made such a pronouncement include the European Union, the United Kingdom, and over 130 others including major economies such as Japan and South Korea.
STRATEGIES FOR ACHIEVING NET ZERO
Achieving net zero by 2050 requires a multi-faceted approach across various sectors.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) sets forth targets of achieving net-zero emissions no later than the year 2050 with the help of the following: increasing the renewable energy capacity from 3,600 gigawatts to 11,000 gigawatts by the year 2030; enhancing energy efficiency modifications from over 2% to over 4% per year; promoting induced electrification through electric vehicles and heat pumps; augmenting energy storage systems to 1,500 gigawatt levels; reducing methane emissions in oil and gas production processes; and overlaying supportive policy structures. All of these initiatives aim at reducing global emissions considerably while supporting the energy transition.
ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF TRANSITIONING TO NET ZERO
There are significant economic implications for moving towards a net-zero economy.
Countries proposing to go net zero by the year 2050 will have to invest about $275 trillion in physical assets over that time.
This amounts to roughly $9.2 trillion per year or around 7.5% of the global GDP in that period. This transition will also necessitate changes in consumer preferences towards net zero, moving away from high-emission goods to low-emission ones, re-channeling investments away from fossil fuels to cleaner and sustainable sources of energy, and opening up new areas of employment.
The transition may come at a cost to some of the employment opportunities in the conventional fossil fuel industries, the opposite is true for the renewable energy industry which is expected to generate millions of new jobs, especially in clean energy technology manufacturing as well as installation and maintenance.
KEY SECTORS FOR DECARBONISATION
Several key sectors are fundamental to the efforts aimed at achieving decarbonization. The energy sector leads this transition since it is the largest player heavily dependent on fossil supply.
It contributes around 80% of total energy consumed today which must be reduced to slightly above 20% by 2050.
An increase in reliance on sources of energy that are renewable becomes imperative; with the estimates showing that two-thirds of the total energy supply should be composed of wind power, solar power, bioenergy, geothermal energy, and hydropower. Solar energy alone will account for one-fifth of total energy supplies by the middle of the century.
Attaining any of these targets inevitably implies very high levels of additional spending on the generation of clean power - this will increase from $260 billion today to $820 billion by 2030.
Another important area in the fight against climate change is the transportation sector, which at present is almost entirely dependent on internal combustion engines and is now changing to electric vehicles.
Today, EVs comprise approximately 5% of all new car sales; however, it is expected that this will change and reach nearly 100% by 2050.
Thus, to facilitate this shift, more than 40 million public charging points need to be installed as opposed to the current 1 million in six years. Such a shift not only cuts down emissions but also improves energy security and brings in alternative forms of transport.
Agriculture and land use practices will also be important factors for reaching net zero by 2050. Some percentage of global emissions is caused by agriculture as a sector; one-fourth in fact therefore, in order to lessen this effect applying practices of farming that are greener and being involved in projects of planting trees will help quite considerably.
Regenerative agricultural practices can improve soil health and at the same time enhance its ability to sequester carbon. Furthermore, it safeguards existing forests.
CHALLENGES IN ACHIEVING NET ZERO GOALS
There are, however, several factors that may impede the achievement of net zero emission goals by the year 2050 as laid out in the roadmaps.
This does not come easy because political will is needed; even if emission reduction has been declared to be the goal in many countries, the political will often does not translate into actual policy or measures.
Currently, pledges account for about 70% of global CO2 emissions, which still allows
some 22 billion tonnes over the limit by mid-century. Also, the contradiction between
the advanced and the developing world further makes this transition difficult; developed economies ought to be at the forefront with assistance and resources to the second
and third-world countries.
TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS DRIVING CHANGE
Technology foresight is a major element that drives the transition. Technological improvements in clean sources of energy are key to achieving greater efficiency and accessibility of renewable energy.
Groundbreaking improvements in battery storage technologies can make intermittent energy sources such as wind and solar workable on a large scale.
In addition, applications of new technologies for carbon capture and storage (CCS) are expected to facilitate emission reductions from sectors where decarbonization processes may be challenging.
ROLE OF BUSINESSES AND INDIVIDUALS
Also, business entities have a huge stake in this transition towards net zero as well.
Many of the companies are starting to commit to bold visions; for example, Wipro has set its goal for net-zero emissions by 2040, with an interim target of 55% green gas emission reductions by 2030.
Changes within the corporations can be aggressive by implementing environmentally friendly business strategies and business model innovations.
Every individual can also participate in reaching net zero by making consumer decisions
that promote sustainable products and services. By raising the bar for such products,
the consumers help the companies to go green. These voices raised through advocacy
or activism can also help stimulate actions that call for policy reforms that foster
changes for the better.
CONCLUSION
To summarize, the aim of achieving net zero emissions by 2050 is not an unrealistic target but goes beyond that, it is imperative if the planet is to remain habitable for posterity.
This entails sweeping transformations in many if not all sectors of the economy, huge resources directed towards clean energy technology as well as political goodwill. Even with such challenges, which are not limited to socioeconomic factors and technological issues, the upside of successfully navigating these transitions is very large.
Improvements such as the creation of jobs that are less harmful to the environment, less invasive healthcare due to fewer winds carrying pollutants, and less hardship brought by adverse weather will be among the many advantages.
Wasting time is not an option; any attempts to prolong the initiative will only worsen the climate challenge we now face.
BY ISHITA SHARMA
TEAM GEOSTRATA
Well analysed